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Analyst: 50% of recent months ended in gains
Half of the months during the last 24-month window have posted positive returns for Bitcoin, a statistic that economist Timothy Peterson says points to a strong probability the token will trade higher by December. Peterson shared the observation on X, noting that counting positive months across any 24-month stretch can help identify inflection points in Bitcoin price cycles.
What the 24-month metric shows
Peterson highlighted that 12 of the previous 24 months were positive, and from that ratio he inferred an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher ten months out. According to CoinGlass, BTC delivered gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September of the measured year, while the remaining months closed lower. That pattern is being used by some traders and analysts as a probabilistic signal for calendar-driven price moves.
Market reaction and December odds
Ten months from Peterson's post falls on Dec. 22. On prediction markets, traders are weighing the chances of a December rally: Polymarket currently prices December as having roughly a 17% chance of being Bitcoin's best month of 2026, narrowly behind November at 18%. Historically, November has tended to be Bitcoin's strongest month on average since 2013, with CoinGlass reporting an average return around 41%.
Bitcoin started trading at around $80,000 in February.
Divided analyst views and market context
Sentiment across the crypto market remains mixed. Bitcoin was trading near $68,173 at the time of publication, about 25% below its level at the start of the year. Some analysts are bullish in the short term: MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe expects a green weekly close and a large monthly candle could cap off a recovery. Other experienced traders take a more cautious stance; one veteran suggested a deeper contraction could persist into late 2026 before a definitive bottom forms.
Sentiment indicators and social signals
Crypto-wide sentiment metrics emphasize investor caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an Extreme Fear reading of 9 on Sunday, reflecting heightened risk aversion. Meanwhile, analytics platform Santiment has noted a reduction in loud Bitcoin price predictions on social media, interpreting the quieter conversation as a normalization of sentiment toward neutral territory, which some view as constructive for healthier price discovery.
What traders should watch
Market participants tracking Peterson's 24-month positive-months metric should also monitor on-chain flows, derivatives positioning, macro drivers, and traditional indicators like moving averages and trading volume. Combining probabilistic calendar-based signals with fundamental blockchain metrics and sentiment indicators can give traders a more balanced view ahead of December.
Overall, while Peterson's statistic suggests a high probability for a higher Bitcoin price in December, the market remains divided and buyers should weigh risk management carefully in this volatile crypto environment.
Source: cointelegraph
Comments
bioNix
Nice stat, but feels overhyped. Calendar signals alone wont cut it, need on-chain + macro context. I wont be surprised either way. quick take
coinpilot
Is this even true? 12/24 positive months = 88% chance by Dec? Stats can be cherry picked, macro and flow matter more. if that's real then... risky
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