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Cardano price outlook: whales and sharks quietly accumulate
Cardano (ADA) remains under selling pressure, but on-chain data shows large holders are using the dip to add to positions. Over the past six months, wallets classified as whales and sharks have purchased a total of 819.14 million ADA, a move that signals strong conviction despite a 71% retracement from earlier highs.
Large-holder accumulation despite steep drawdown
Santiment analytics reveal that addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have consistently increased their balances even as ADA fell from roughly $0.90 to near $0.26. That 819.14 million ADA accumulation equates to about a 1.6% rise in these holders' share of circulating supply and is valued at approximately $213.9 million at current prices. In crypto markets, concentrated buying during major corrections frequently marks absorption of liquidity and can precede longer-term bottoms.
Price action and technical indicators to watch
ADA is trading around $0.2935 and is testing short-term resistance. The token sits just above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.2753, but recent candles show rejection at the upper Bollinger Band near $0.2985 — a technical hurdle bulls must clear to build momentum.
Cardano price analysis
Horizontal support is firm near $0.2520, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reads slightly negative at -0.04. That mildly bearish CMF suggests distribution from smaller holders is still exerting short-term downward pressure, which partially offsets the positive signal from whale accumulation.
Scenarios for a bullish flip or continued consolidation
For a clear bullish reversal, ADA needs a sustained daily close above the psychological $0.30 level. Holding above the 20-day SMA would support a move toward $0.32 resistance, where profit-taking could re-emerge. Conversely, a drop back below $0.25 would indicate the accumulation phase requires more time, and that weaker hands remain active sellers.
Traders and investors should watch on-chain metrics (whale balances, exchange flows), Bollinger Band behavior, the 20-day SMA, and CMF readings closely. Together these indicators paint a picture of underlying accumulation by large holders, but also highlight that short-term selling pressure from retail or smaller wallets can still mute any immediate breakout.
Overall, concentrated buys by whales and sharks are a constructive development for Cardano’s medium-term outlook, but confirmation will depend on price action above key technical levels and sustained improvement in money flow metrics.
Source: crypto
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