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Bitcoin holds near $116K as on-chain metrics show renewed confidence
Bitcoin has regained upward momentum and is trading around $116,030, up roughly 4% in the last 24 hours. The token is 5.1% higher for the week and 5.7% up over the past month, sitting about 8% below the October 6 peak of $126,080. Spot volume and derivatives activity have climbed significantly, signaling a market that is preparing for a directional move rather than simply unwinding positions.
Market activity and derivatives flow
Trading activity has accelerated: 24-hour spot volume rose to about $54.45 billion, an increase of 140% from prior levels. Derivatives markets are also heating up, with open interest rising 6.7% and futures volume surging 149% to $95.49 billion, according to Coinglass. Higher open interest combined with rising futures volume tends to indicate that traders are taking new positions and expecting future price movement, a setup that can precede stronger trends in either direction.
On-chain metrics point toward holding behavior
On-chain indicators are showing constructive signs. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's October 27 analysis reports the percentage of BTC supply in profit hovering near 83.6%. Historically, sustained rallies are often accompanied by supply-in-profit readings in the mid-80s, where holders demonstrate conviction and resist rapid profit-taking. Readings above 95% have previously marked overheated markets that later corrected, while capitulation bottoms during pullbacks have landed between roughly 73% and 81%.
The current move back toward the mid-80% range suggests healthier sentiment and more holding than immediate selling. That said, analysts caution that a climb beyond 95% would be a red flag for overheated conditions.
At the same time, exchange flows deserve attention. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain highlighted large inflows to Binance in October totaling 185,000 BTC, with whales accounting for 24.7% of that volume — the largest whale share since July. Exchange inflows can mean selling pressure, but the pattern here looks more like repositioning by large holders preparing for future trend continuation rather than wholesale liquidation.
Technical outlook: structure remains constructive
From a technical perspective, the market structure looks constructive for bulls. The relative strength index sits in the mid-50s, a neutral zone that still leaves room for upside. Momentum and MACD indicators show a slight bullish tilt, and price action is trading above key short- and long-term moving averages, which supports an underlying uptrend.
Support has emerged around the $112,000 area, where buyers have consistently defended dips. On the upside, immediate resistance sits near $118,500. A decisive breakout above $118,500 could trigger renewed momentum toward the prior high near $126,000, while a failure to hold $112,000 would risk undermining the bullish structure.
What traders should watch
Key levels: support near $112,000 and resistance at $118,500, with the previous high around $126,000 as the larger target for continuation. Watch on-chain supply-in-profit readings: a sustained move back into the mid-80s is constructive, while a spike above 95% would warrant caution. Monitor derivatives open interest and futures volume for signs that leveraged players are piling into new positions.
Bitcoin daily chart
Overall, the blend of rising spot and derivatives volumes, improved on-chain confidence, and a technically constructive market profile suggests the current recovery is being met by holding behavior and strategic repositioning. That combination keeps the near-term bias tilted to the upside while highlighting clear levels where the trend could be validated or challenged.
Source: crypto
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