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Bitcoin tumbles as liquidations and ETF redemptions intensify
Bitcoin slipped to its lowest level in more than six months on Monday, pressured by a surge in futures liquidations and sizeable outflows from US spot ETFs. The world\'s largest crypto asset traded near 95,000 at the last check on Nov 17 Asian morning, dipping intraday to a low of 93,029, the weakest reading since April 12.
Over the past week BTC has fallen more than 10%, and it now sits roughly 24.6% below the year-to-date all-time high of 126,000 reached about a month ago. Derivatives markets saw around 243 million in positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for approximately 136.6 million of that total. Such forced deleveraging typically amplifies downward pressure, creating cascades of selling that can accelerate declines.
Macro outlook and Fed rate expectations
The sell-off has been amplified by a shift in interest rate expectations. Market pricing for a December 25 basis point Fed cut has weakened considerably. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds at 43.9%, while a Polymarket prediction shows a roughly 46% probability, down sharply from better than 80% at the start of November. Reduced hopes for near-term easing have prompted risk-off moves across equities and crypto, prompting many traders to de-risk positions in futures and margin books.
Institutional demand fades: ETF flows and implications
Institutional demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has also cooled. Data from SoSoValue indicates the 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than 2.3 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks. Persistent redemptions from large holders signal weakening confidence among institutional investors and are likely a key driver of recent price pressure.
Sustained capital flight from ETFs can remove a reliable bid from the market, leaving BTC vulnerable if macro uncertainty persists. Should outflows continue this week, support levels could be tested further as liquidity contracts and traders continue to cut risk.
Technical picture: death cross and moving averages
Technically, Bitcoin has confirmed a death cross on the daily chart, a bearish pattern formed when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. Historically, BTC has often experienced extended downside after such crossovers, though outcomes vary by cycle. Last week BTC also closed its weekly candle below the 50-day exponential moving average for the first time since August 2023, suggesting momentum may be tilting in favor of sellers.
Bitcoin price has confirmed a death cross on the daily chart — Nov. 17
The Aroon indicators further underscored bearish control. The Aroon Up was recorded at 92.86% while the Aroon Down registered 0%, indicating that downward momentum is dominant in the near term.
Bitcoin Aroon chart — Nov. 17
Key support levels and market outlook
Immediate technical support sits in the 93,770 to 94,000 region. A decisive break below that zone could open the path toward the psychological 90,000 level or lower, especially if liquidation cascades intensify and ETF outflows persist. Traders should watch open interest and funding rates in futures markets, along with daily ETF flow reports, to gauge the potential for further downside or a stabilization in demand.
Risk management remains critical in this environment. Leveraged traders should reassess stop levels and position sizes, while longer-term investors may view current weakness as an opportunity to dollar-cost average, depending on individual risk tolerance and portfolio strategy.
What to watch next
Key variables that will likely shape Bitcoin price action in the coming days include changes in Fed rate expectations, continued ETF flow data, futures market liquidations, and broader equity market sentiment. If macro risk appetite rebounds and ETF flows stabilize, BTC could reclaim lost ground. Conversely, if outflows persist and liquidations deepen, further downside to the 90,000 area is possible.
In short, a combination of macro headwinds, leveraged position deleveraging, and waning institutional demand has put Bitcoin under pressure. Traders and investors should remain vigilant and prioritize risk controls as the market digests these developments.
Source: crypto
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