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XRP was trading around $1.13 on July 7, slipping about 1.7% over 24 hours, according to crypto.news market data. The token has bounced from a late-June low near $1.00, but buyers have yet to convert that short-term recovery into a decisive breakout. With spot XRP ETFs still drawing inflows and the CLARITY Act delayed, the market is balancing improving demand against fading policy catalysts and persistent selling pressure from perpetual traders.
Price action and key levels
The intraday range has been narrow, with XRP oscillating between roughly $1.11 and $1.16 while 24-hour volume hovered near $1.73 billion. Bulls need to push and close above $1.14 to show renewed control in the short term. A clean advance beyond the $1.18 to $1.20 area would strengthen the bullish case and bring higher resistance levels back into play.
On the downside, $1.10 stands out as the pivot: a decisive break below that level would weaken the current rebound and open the door toward $1.06 and possibly the lower $1.00 region. Traders are watching these zones closely for confirmation of either resumed downside momentum or consolidation and recovery.
ETF inflows vs. policy disappointment
Spot XRP exchange-traded products have continued to attract money, supporting price action over recent weeks. Data showed spot XRP ETFs recorded a ninth consecutive week of net inflows, adding roughly $17.2 million even amid lingering uncertainty about XRP's legal status in the United States. Those inflows are constructive for liquidity and provide a steady bid, but they have not yet reversed the broader downtrend.
The CLARITY Act — widely viewed as the key regulatory catalyst that could clarify XRP's classification and boost institutional adoption — missed its July 4 target and has been pushed toward an August 7 deadline before the Senate recess. Although the bill has passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee, staff work remains to reconcile House and Senate drafts. That delay removes an immediate policy trigger that many traders had been counting on.
Financial institutions have modelled substantial upside if legal clarity arrives. For example, Standard Chartered projected that approved XRP ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in first-year flows, contingent on clarity unlocking greater institutional demand. Until then, ETF inflows help the market but do not guarantee a sustained trend reversal.
Technical indicators and momentum
The daily chart for XRP/USDT shows price recovering from the late-June dip, yet the larger structure still reads as weak after the June breakdown. XRP is trading above the middle Bollinger Band near $1.10, which keeps the short-term rebound intact. The upper Bollinger Band sits around $1.18 — the same zone traders are watching for a confirmed breakout. Unless XRP closes decisively above that band, the move remains a rebound inside a vulnerable structure rather than a confirmed trend change.
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XRP price chart
The lower Bollinger Band remains close to $1.01 and would be a critical support if selling resumes. A breach below $1.10 increases the likelihood of testing that lower boundary.
Momentum indicators offer a mixed signal. The Stochastic RSI is elevated — readings near the high 80s and 90s indicate strong short-term momentum but also warn of overbought conditions. In addition, the faster Stochastic line has started to retreat below the slower line, suggesting the rebound may be losing momentum.
On shorter timeframes, some traders point to the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) as a key momentum gauge. A noted analyst flagged the importance of maintaining $1.10 after price dipped beneath the 21 EMA on the four-hour chart, stating that holding $1.10 keeps the structure alive while a drop below $1.06 would increase downside risk.
Other analysts take a longer-term bullish view, suggesting XRP could resume a larger uptrend if it clears current resistance, but those scenarios hinge on prices first breaking through the $1.18 to $1.20 zone.
On-chain and derivatives flow: a split market
On-chain and derivatives metrics reveal a bifurcated market. Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) across centralized exchanges improved materially, rising from a net negative position in mid-May to a solid net positive by early July. This shift indicates stronger spot buying and absorption of available supply across exchanges.
By contrast, the derivatives market has remained defensive. Binance perpetual CVD deteriorated substantially over the same period, showing persistent sell-side pressure from perpetual traders. Open interest has also contracted — a sign that leveraged participants reduced positions as spot buyers became more active.
Binance spot metrics improved but remain negative overall, which implies that while selling pressure has eased, it has not been fully reversed. The combination of growing spot demand and continued derivatives selling creates a tug-of-war that is keeping volatility elevated and limiting the scope of any sustained rally.
What traders should watch next
- Short-term: a close above $1.14 would suggest buyers are regaining control; a decisive move above $1.18 to $1.20 would confirm stronger bullish momentum. - Support: $1.10 is the immediate pivot. A break and hold under that level would increase the odds of a retest of $1.06 and the lower Bollinger Band near $1.01. - Macro and regulatory: progress or further delays on the CLARITY Act will remain an important macro catalyst for XRP ETF adoption and institutional flows. - Market structure: monitor spot CVD and perpetual CVD across major venues — divergence between spot demand and futures selling can produce sharp, range-bound moves.
Outlook
XRP remains in a fragile recovery: spot demand from ETFs and improving on-chain buying support prices, but the CLARITY Act delay removes an important near-term policy catalyst. Technicals show the rebound is intact but not yet convincing, while derivatives markets reflect continued caution from leveraged traders. Traders should watch $1.10 as the critical level for preserving the rebound and target a sustained break above $1.18 to confirm a more durable bullish shift. As always, manage risk carefully and keep an eye on regulatory headlines that could rapidly alter market sentiment for XRP and crypto assets more broadly.
Source: crypto
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