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Analyst firm Counterpoint has revised its outlook for 2026: rising RAM prices are expected to tighten margins, lift retail prices and shrink global smartphone shipments. The firm now forecasts a 2.1% decline in the market next year, driven largely by surging memory costs that show little sign of easing through mid‑2026.
Why RAM is reshaping the smartphone roadmap
Component cost pressure is already visible in the bill of materials (BoM). Low‑end phones have seen BoMs climb about 25% since the start of the year, while mid‑range and high‑end devices are up roughly 15% and 10% respectively. Counterpoint warns RAM prices could spike another 40% through Q2 2026, which would push BoMs up an additional 8%–15% for many models.
That kind of jump forces makers to make hard choices. "Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters," says Senior Analyst Yang Wang, "but it will be tough for others that don’t have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins." Expect the squeeze to be most visible among Chinese OEMs, where lower margins leave less room to absorb cost rises.
Manufacturers are already reacting by tweaking product lineups and cutting specs. "In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components like camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components and, of course, memory configurations," notes Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai. In short: some cheap models may get cheaper on paper, but they’ll also be stripped back.
One likely outcome is a higher average selling price (ASP) next year. Counterpoint has bumped its ASP forecast for 2026 from a modest +3.9% to a steeper +6.9%. That suggests brands will try to steer buyers toward premium models — where RAM is a smaller share of the BoM and margins can better absorb volatility.
For buyers, the landscape will feel familiar but sharper: fewer aggressive low‑end offers, selective component downgrades, and more marketing around mid‑to‑high tier phones. For the industry, the memory shortage is less a single event and more a catalyst for a reshuffle in product strategy, pricing and competitive positioning.
In short, if you were expecting stable smartphone prices and flat shipments next year, Counterpoint’s update suggests a different reality — one marked by tighter supply, higher costs and an industry recalibrating for a pricier 2026.
Source: gsmarena
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