Bitcoin Profitability Near 60% — Recovery Risks Loom

Bitcoin supply in profit climbs but recovery remains fragile

Bitcoin investors are once again in aggregate profit as supply in profit approaches 60%, yet onchain indicators warn the apparent rebound may not yet mark a durable market turnaround. Analysts using CryptoQuant data caution that important long-term metrics have not confirmed a genuine bull-market shift.

Bitcoin supply in profit.

What the data shows

CryptoQuant reporting highlights that Bitcoin supply in profit rose sharply from a 2026 low. As of July 22, supply in profit reached roughly 57.5%, up from 46.2% on June 30, according to CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN. That recovery pushed the metric above the 50% threshold in July, signaling that a majority of BTC addresses now hold coins worth more than their acquisition price.

Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot).

At the same time, long-term holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH-SOPR, has shown intermittent improvement. LTH-SOPR tracks whether coins that have been dormant for at least six months are moving onchain at prices higher than when they were last transacted. A 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR consistently above 1 has been a historical requirement for reliable market recoveries.

Why LTH-SOPR matters

Values above 1 indicate long-term holders are realizing gains, while readings below 1 mean they're selling at a loss, which can point to capitulation pressure. CryptoQuant and independent onchain analysts stress that both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR must meet specific thresholds to confirm a sustained bullish regime: the 30-day LTH-SOPR SMA should stay above 1 for an extended period and total supply in profit should exceed about 64%.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA.

False breakouts and lingering risks

This cycle already produced one false breakout. Between April 28 and June 1, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR remained above 1 for 35 days and supply in profit touched 67%, but both indicators later rolled over. Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days, underscoring the fragility of the current upswing.

Historical patterns add to the caution. In June, supply in loss exceeded 50% — a signal that has often coincided with bear-market bottoms in prior BTC cycles. That metric, combined with the mixed demand picture, suggests investors should treat the current recovery as tentative rather than definitive.

Market demand and institutional flows

Demand remains uneven: spot-market activity appears muted while institutional allocations to Bitcoin have shown signs of renewed interest. This divergence can support episodic price rallies without delivering a broad structural shift unless onchain profitability and LTH behavior stabilize.

For traders and long-term investors focused on onchain analytics, the message is clear: watch the 30-day LTH-SOPR SMA and overall supply in profit. Until both indicators demonstrate sustained strength beyond the recent bounce, the risk of another roll over remains material for the crypto market.