Bitcoin Falls Below $64K Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Market snapshot: BTC slips as Fed meeting looms

Bitcoin drifted lower on Tuesday, sliding beneath the $64,000 mark as traders de-risked ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy decision. Intraday action saw BTC fall roughly 2.5%, briefly testing the mid-$63,000s before a modest rebound. The pullback coincided with net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a cluster of leveraged liquidations, adding to near-term selling pressure.

Price action and technical context

Bitcoin opened the session near $63,706 and pushed down toward $63,327 at the intraday low as market participants reduced exposure ahead of the Fed announcement. BTC later repaired slightly to about $63,858, but the net result left the cryptocurrency about 2.5% weaker on the day.

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin broke below an ascending trendline that had been supporting the recovery from the late-June low near $58,000. Attempts to reclaim that trendline stalled under $64,000, suggesting sellers remained in control of short-term momentum.

Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — July 28 

The 4-hour Supertrend indicator sat overhead at $65,198, which keeps the technical bias tilted toward sellers until BTC can close convincingly above that level and turn the broken trendline into support. Chaikin Money Flow printed -0.04, indicating slightly negative capital flows and that selling pressure marginally outpaced buying demand.

On the daily chart, BTC traded below the 20-day moving average at $64,449 while hanging marginally above the 50-day moving average around $63,343. That compression — resistance near the short-term average and support at the 50-day — has created a narrow range that could define the next meaningful move.

Bitcoin price daily chart — July 28 

BTC's daily momentum remains neutral rather than deeply oversold. The relative strength index read 48.13, under its moving average of 53.58 and slightly below the 50 midpoint, which leaves room for additional downside if sellers push below the 50-day moving average.

Liquidity and liquidation zones to watch

A three-day liquidation heatmap highlights the nearest large cluster of leveraged positions between approximately $64,400 and $64,600. A return to that zone could flush stop-losses and trigger short squeezes, but that same area coincides with the 20-day moving average and may act as meaningful resistance on any rally.

Further overhead liquidity sits between roughly $65,800 and $66,200, but Bitcoin would likely need to clear the 4-hour Supertrend at $65,198 before attempting that upper band. On the downside, the most significant concentration of liquidity appears near $62,500 to $62,600; a breach below the 50-day moving average at $63,343 could quicken a move toward that cluster, with additional support around $61,800 to $62,000.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap

Macro catalyst: What the Fed meeting means for crypto

The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting on July 28, with the rate decision scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday and a press briefing from Chair Kevin Warsh 30 minutes later. Markets largely expect policymakers to hold the federal funds rate in the current 3.50%–3.75% range, but futures pricing still assigns a roughly one-in-three chance of a hike, making the outcome less certain than usual.

A surprise rate increase would likely strengthen the US dollar and push up Treasury yields, which historically pressures risk assets including Bitcoin and large-cap cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a decision to hold — coupled with dovish guidance — could relieve immediate selling pressure, though the Fed’s forward guidance will be crucial: any signal that a September hike remains likely could still trigger additional volatility.

In short: traders are trimming leveraged exposure ahead of the Fed because an unexpected policy shift can rapidly alter dollar liquidity and borrowing costs, two major drivers for crypto market flows.

Flows and institutional demand: ETFs and tokens

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $11.64 million in net outflows on July 27, the third straight day of withdrawals according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s IBIT led redemptions with $8.82 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $2.82 million. Although the combined assets under management for these funds remain around $78.71 billion, the recent outflows signaled softer institutional demand into the Fed event.

By contrast, US-listed spot Ether ETFs attracted $9.23 million on the same day. BlackRock’s ETHA saw a headline $11.75 million inflow, while Invesco’s QETH registered a $2.52 million outflow, implying mixed but notable appetite for Ether relative to Bitcoin in this session. One day of uneven flows does not establish a firm rotation between BTC and ETH investors, but it does underscore how fund flows can amplify intraday price moves.

Short-term trader implications

Traders should monitor ETF flow data and the liquidation heatmap closely: a rebound into the $64,400–$64,600 band could trigger short liquidations, while renewed outflows might accelerate a slide toward $62,500. Key technical triggers to watch are a sustained close above $65,200 (which would relieve some selling bias) or a decisive break below the 50-day average at $63,343 (which would open the path to the lower liquidity cluster).

Analyst views and on-chain context

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe retained a bullish near-term stance despite the pullback, forecasting a renewed run to $68,000 in early August and the potential to push beyond $75,000 thereafter if momentum returns. He emphasized that reclaiming the $64,450–$65,200 resistance corridor would be a necessary first step, with a move above $66,000 opening the path to his $68k target.

On-chain commentator Ardi pointed out that Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value ratio sits at 1.21, substantially above the 0.69 and 0.75 readings that coincided with the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows. That suggests the market has not undergone the same level of widespread capitulation seen at past bear-market troughs, leaving room for either renewed upside or a deeper correction depending on macro signals.

What traders should watch next

• Fed statement and Chair Warsh’s press conference: guidance will likely set the tone for immediate risk appetite.
• ETF flows: continued Bitcoin outflows could pressure short-term price support, while inflows into Ether products may indicate temporary rotation.
• Key technical levels: resistance at $64,450–$65,200 and $65,198 (4-hour Supertrend); support at the 50-day MA near $63,343 and the liquidity cluster at $62,500.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s dip below $64,000 is a mix of technical retracement and event-driven risk management as markets await the Fed’s policy decision. ETF outflows and concentrated leveraged positions increase the potential for volatile moves, but daily momentum remains neutral rather than deeply oversold. Traders and investors should prioritize risk controls ahead of the Fed release while watching ETF flows, liquidation heatmaps, and whether BTC can reclaim the key resistance zone above $64,400 to set the stage for a potential recovery.