Ethereum Eyes $1,800 After Rare Monthly TD Buy Signal

Ethereum reclaims $1,700 as ETFs spark a new leg higher

Ethereum traded near $1,715 on July 3 after gaining more than 6% over 24 hours, signaling renewed momentum for ETH following a period of sustained selling pressure. The rebound sent ETH back above the psychologically important $1,700 threshold — a level traders watched closely after recent declines — and shifted focus to a potential test of $1,800 as buyers attempted to assert control.

ETF inflows return, but exchange flows remain mixed

The short-term bounce coincided with a return of spot Ethereum ETF inflows. On July 2, spot ETH ETFs recorded roughly $29.08 million in combined net inflows, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with about $29.74 million, while Grayscale’s ETHE saw a modest outflow near $2.75 million. That rotation into spot products helped calm pressure around the $1,500 support region and gave traders reason to expect improved liquidity and demand.

Ethereum spot ETF net inflow

Despite the ETF inflows, exchange-level metrics painted a more nuanced picture. Higher withdrawals from major venues can signal accumulation as holders move coins into self-custody or DeFi, yet positive netflows back into exchanges raise the prospect of future selling. Until exchange balances and netflows clearly trend lower, selling pressure remains a plausible risk.

Technical indicators show early recovery, TD Sequential signals seller fatigue

Technical analysis across multiple timeframes indicates improving momentum, but not all signals point to a confirmed bullish reversal yet. On the monthly chart, the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential printed a rare buy setup, which many chartists view as evidence of seller exhaustion on a higher timeframe. That monthly signal typically attracts attention because it implies the larger downtrend may be running out of steam.

At the same time, short-term momentum indicators have started to turn constructive. The MACD histogram flipped positive near 19.33 and the MACD line crossed above its signal line, showing that the recent bullish crossover has traction. However, both MACD lines remain below the zero line, meaning the indicator has not decisively flipped bullish; traders often look for a move toward and above zero for confirmation of a sustained trend reversal.

Ethereum (ETH) price chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also improved, sitting around the mid-50s and moving above its short-term moving average. A rise above 50 signals buyers regaining control after a weak June, but the indicator remains vulnerable to renewed selling if price fails to sustain the breakout above key levels.

Crypto analysts are taking note. Ali Charts highlighted the monthly TD Sequential buy signal and suggested the pattern points to exhaustion among sellers on the multi-year timeframe. He also pointed out a long-term support area near $1,100 — the lower boundary of Ethereum’s multi-year channel — and proposed mid- and upper-channel targets near $3,000 and $5,000 respectively as longer-term recovery objectives, assuming the channel holds.

Key price levels to watch

• Immediate support: $1,700. A decisive hold here would reinforce bullish momentum.
• Near-term resistance: $1,800. A clean break above this level could confirm buyer control after the recent drawdown.
• If $1,700 fails: attention may shift to $1,650 and the broader $1,500 support zone.

ETH/BTC setup and sector rotation

Ethereum’s relative performance against Bitcoin is another important metric. Analyst Crypto Rover flagged an emerging ETH/BTC golden cross on weekly moving averages — the 50-week moving average moving toward a cross above the 100-week moving average. The last comparable signal in 2021 prefaced a period where ETH outperformed BTC, making the setup noteworthy for traders watching whether capital rotates back into Ethereum from Bitcoin.

A strengthening ETH/BTC pair would indicate that investors are preferring Ethereum exposure over Bitcoin, which could support larger ETH gains if market leadership broadens beyond Bitcoin alone.

Derivatives activity points to higher volatility

Derivatives markets are showing increased activity alongside the price rebound. Coinglass data reported a 14.48% rise in ETH volume to roughly $44.74 billion, and open interest climbed about 10.64% to $24.54 billion. Options volume jumped more than 30% to approximately $1.41 billion, while options open interest rose to about $4.43 billion.

Rising open interest can amplify price moves: if buyers lead, it supports momentum; if leveraged longs become crowded, it raises liquidation risk and could accelerate corrections. For now, the derivatives landscape suggests a higher-probability path for volatile swings rather than a smooth, uninterrupted rally.

On-chain flows: withdrawals surge but netflows still warn of selling

On-chain analytics flagged notable exchange activity around the rebound. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that Binance ETH withdrawal transactions hit a three-year high, with more than 166,000 withdrawals in a single day as ETH moved up from the $1,500 area. Large withdrawal spikes often coincide with accumulation into cold wallets, self-custody, or DeFi positions.

Ethereum (ETH) exchange withdrawing transactions

However, another CryptoQuant analyst, PelinayPA, pointed out a contrasting metric: Binance’s ETH exchange netflow remained positive at roughly +12,938 ETH on the same timeframe, indicating that more ETH was still moving onto the exchange than off it. Positive exchange netflow can elevate selling risk since coins available on exchanges are easier to liquidate.

That mixed on-chain picture keeps the short-term outlook balanced: some participants appear to be accumulating, while exchange balances and elevated derivatives interest preserve a path for volatility.

Institutional and corporate support adds a structural tailwind

Beyond retail and derivatives flows, institutional accumulation is visible. Ethereum Institutional — backed by contributors including BitMine and SharpLink among others — is positioned to support broader institutional adoption by banks, asset managers, custodians, and financial firms. Large corporate treasuries are also adding to ETH holdings. BitMine, for example, reportedly increased its Ethereum treasury by 27,084 ETH, bringing its total to over 5.7 million ETH, roughly 4.7% of the supply. SharpLink continued purchases during the weakness as well, adding another 10,000 ETH for about $16.1 million.

These large, long-term buyers can act as a structural support layer, reducing available circulating supply and potentially amplifying price moves if demand continues.

Outlook: balanced but biased toward higher volatility and potential upside

Short-term technicals and ETF inflows favor a cautiously constructive view for Ethereum, with $1,800 as the next meaningful upside hurdle. The monthly TD Sequential buy signal is notable for suggesting bigger-picture seller exhaustion, but MACD and RSI readings show the recovery remains early and incomplete until momentum indicators confirm a full trend flip.

Derivatives and exchange netflows continue to signal elevated volatility and the possibility of renewed selling pressure, so risk management remains crucial for traders. If buyers can sustain ETH above $1,800 while exchange netflows normalize and open interest stabilizes, the path toward mid-range targets like $3,000 becomes more plausible over the medium term.

For now, market participants should monitor ETF flows, exchange balances, open interest, and weekly ETH/BTC dynamics to gauge whether the recent rebound evolves into a broader recovery or stalls and re-tests lower support.

Key takeaways

• Ethereum reclaimed $1,700 and is targeting $1,800 next.
• Monthly TD Sequential shows a rare buy signal suggesting seller exhaustion.
• MACD and RSI indicate early recovery but lack full confirmation.
• Rising open interest and positive exchange netflow keep volatility and selling risk elevated.
• Institutional accumulation and ETF inflows provide supportive demand if sustained.

Overall, the market narrative for ETH is shifting from defensive to cautiously optimistic, but traders should be prepared for continued volatility as the market digests ETF flows, on-chain activity, and derivatives positioning.