12 October 2026 — JP Morgan analysts say demand for the iPhone 18 Pro models in China is stronger than for the 17 Pro models a year earlier, even as Apple has trimmed component orders amid reports of softer overall demand.
In a note to investors, the analysts framed the production cut as a routine adjustment after a major iPhone launch and linked it to Apple's split rollout: Apple released the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in September and plans to launch the non Pro models early next year. The firm says this staging, not a deeper market problem, largely explains the order pullback.
JP Morgan analysts say the production cut is a routine adjustment after a major iPhone launch.
The bank's note also confirms the picture coming out of China: 18 Pro demand is higher than the comparable 17 Pro generation last year. The uplift is modest, JP Morgan cautions — not much higher, but higher.
Part of the dynamic reflects buyers waiting for the vanilla iPhone 18, which is typically the volume leader. JP Morgan forecasts a roughly 2% decrease in iPhone revenues this cycle because the standard iPhone 18 is not yet available. At the same time, not all buyers opted to wait, a factor that may have helped sales of the 18 Pro models.
JP Morgan further notes that the 17 Pro generation continues to sell well despite no longer being listed on Apple.com.
Foldable debut and market context
Apple has a major launch on the horizon: the iPhone Duo, the company's first foldable, is due to become available next week. JP Morgan expects it to be in high demand and forecasts roughly 8.5 million units sold before year end.
For context, JP Morgan cites industry estimates that global foldable shipments will range between 20 and 27 million units this year.
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