Standard Chartered $100K BTC Call Survives Recent Selloff

Standard Chartered holds $100K Bitcoin target after pullback

Standard Chartered’s digital-assets research lead, Geoffrey Kendrick, has retained the bank’s bullish year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) and $4,000 for Ethereum (ETH) even after a sharp market correction. Bitcoin slid toward the $59,000 area before recovering to roughly $63,500, while Ethereum traded near $1,665 during the same episode. Kendrick’s latest note frames the decline as a forced, short-term shock rather than the start of a renewed bear market, keeping the bank’s broader thesis intact.

Why Kendrick still calls $59K the cycle low

Kendrick describes the move to $59,000 as the "likely low" for the current cycle. He attributes the selloff to a mix of forced liquidations, weak spot Bitcoin ETF flows and episodic liquidity stress across markets. Those dynamics, he argues, inflicted the deepest damage to prices during the drawdown but do not invalidate the structural bullish case that underpinned Standard Chartered’s earlier outlook.

The bank’s recovery scenario depends on a return of steady ETF inflows and renewed institutional demand for BTC. ETF redemptions during the selloff reduced the institutional bid that had supported prices earlier in the year. Kendrick emphasizes that consistent money flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will be a key confirmation signal for the $100K path.

Liquidity events and the SpaceX factor

Kendrick’s note also highlights broader liquidity drivers, including cash demand tied to major equity events. He points to the SpaceX IPO window as a potential source of temporary cash pressure on risk assets, noting that market participants monitored Nasdaq trading and synthetic SpaceX-linked markets for crypto-native volume during the IPO period. That said, these events are seen as transitory—pressures that can temporarily pull liquidity out of crypto rather than undermine long-term demand.

Ethereum outlook: $4,000 target remains

For Ethereum, Standard Chartered kept a $4,000 year-end target and expects ETH to outperform Bitcoin over time. Ethereum’s on-chain utility—demand from stablecoins, tokenized assets and settlement activity—remains structurally strong even while price action lags. That disconnect is reflected in the depressed ETH/BTC ratio, which Kendrick views as an important metric: a rebound in the ratio would indicate a renewed preference for Ethereum exposure.

How ETH’s path ties into the BTC thesis

Kendrick places Ethereum’s trajectory alongside Bitcoin’s ETF flow test. Institutional demand, macro liquidity and ETF dynamics together form the bank’s checklist for the next market stage. Key markers include Bitcoin holding the $59,000 level, a return of ETF inflows, stabilization of Strategy-related demand (including corporate and treasury purchases) and Ethereum regaining relative strength versus Bitcoin.

What investors should watch next

• ETF flows: Sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are the clearest signal that institutional appetite is returning. Heavy outflows during the selloff weakened the market’s support.
• Liquidity events: Major equity listings or corporate financing needs (such as a high-profile IPO) can create temporary cash demands that pressure crypto prices.
• ETH/BTC ratio: A rising ratio would suggest investors are rotating back into Ethereum, validating Standard Chartered’s view that ETH will outperform.
• Strategy demand: Corporate treasury activity and large institutional buyers (including firms like those historically led by high-profile BTC advocates) will remain an important source of long-term buy-side support.

Bottom line

Standard Chartered’s call for $100,000 Bitcoin and $4,000 Ethereum remains active despite the recent selloff. Geoffrey Kendrick frames the $59,000 move as a probable cycle bottom driven by forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity stress rather than structural failure. For BTC’s rebound to gain conviction, the market will need to see consistent ETF inflows, resumed institutional demand and stabilization of liquidity drivers. For ETH, on-chain usage and a stronger ETH/BTC ratio will be critical to proving out the $4,000 target. Traders and investors should monitor ETF flow data, macro liquidity events and on-chain metrics closely as the next tests of the bank’s thesis.