VanEck: Bitcoin May Enter Accumulation by November

VanEck sees late-cycle capitulation — accumulation possible by November

VanEck told investors in an August update that Bitcoin appears to be showing classic late-cycle distress, with eight of its 12 capitulation indicators still active as of Aug. 12. The asset manager’s research places the current correction in its tenth month, measured from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, and suggests the next turning point could arrive between September and November if historical patterns repeat.

What VanEck’s capitulation model measures

VanEck defines a capitulation signal as active when an indicator’s latest reading lands in an extreme historical percentile. For most metrics this means readings in the bottom 15% of their recorded history; for indicators where high values represent stress, the threshold is the top 10%. The firm also treats price drawdown as a separate signal — activated when BTC drops at least 35% from its peak.

In VanEck’s August analysis, Bitcoin’s decline from the October record was around 49%, though that drawdown only sits near the 35th percentile relative to historical drawdowns. Applying the percentile rule to drawdown would reduce the number of active signals from eight to seven. VanEck argues the structural presence of institutional buyers and spot Bitcoin ETPs could make this cycle’s bear market shallower than prior ones, but the firm stresses that this remains an assumption rather than a certainty.

Capitulation signals mark stress, not a precise bottom

VanEck’s backtest is cautious about expecting an immediate rebound. When eight to 12 capitulation indicators were active historically, Bitcoin’s average return over the next 90 days was 12.8%, below the baseline return of 15.2% for comparable periods. Over 180 days the average return was 32%, again below the 36.3% baseline. Outperformance showed up only over the one-year horizon — a result VanEck treats tentatively because it was driven by 115 overlapping observation days representing relatively few distinct market episodes.

The research therefore suggests the capitulation cluster can reliably signal late-cycle conditions and heightened risk, but it does not pinpoint exact market bottoms. Extended sideways trading or a prolonged consolidation phase remains a realistic outcome before any sustainable recovery.

ETF and spot ETP demand absorb selling pressure

VanEck’s report documents roughly $663 million of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs during the 30-day window it analyzed — roughly equal to 10,400 BTC at prevailing prices. Those inflows reversed much of the preceding month’s $2.4 billion in outflows. Fund flows were uneven in the weeks after VanEck’s cut-off, with U.S. spot funds reporting about $385.2 million in withdrawals for the week ending Aug. 14, followed by renewed inflows on Aug. 17–18 amounting to approximately $486.8 million combined, according to Farside data.

These spot ETP purchases helped to support prices around the $64,000 area: Bitcoin traded near $64,250 on Aug. 19, above VanEck’s Aug. 11 reference close of $63,549 but still below the asset’s 200-day moving average. Realized volatility also eased, dropping to 27.2% over 30 days — a sign that short-term price swings had moderated.

How fund flows affect cycle depth

VanEck emphasizes that continuing spot demand and healthy trading volume would strengthen the thesis that the market is moving into accumulation. Conversely, renewed outflows or sustained distribution among long-term holders would argue against that scenario. The availability of US spot ETP liquidity could blunt the severity of this cycle’s low point compared to prior bear markets, when drawdowns ranged between 78% and 94%.

Long-term holders are moving — that complicates accumulation

On-chain metrics based on Glassnode data in VanEck’s study show coins held longer than one year dropped by 356,534 BTC over a 30-day span, taking long-term holdings to 11.84 million BTC — 59.1% of the circulating supply. All six long-term age bands contracted; coins aged one to two years registered the largest reduction, roughly 156,000 BTC. Coins older than ten years moved far less (around 4,000 BTC), indicating the oldest wallets stayed comparatively dormant.

VanEck notes some of this movement could reflect wallet security actions rather than sales — for example, transfers following a hardware wallet vulnerability. The firm referenced concerns after the Coldcard security failure and subsequent reporting of an $89 million wallet drain, but observed that confirmed losses were much smaller than the total movement by aged coins. Distinguishing security-driven transfers from active selling typically requires analyzing exchange inflows by coin age to see whether funds landed on trading venues or simply shifted between private addresses.

What to watch from September through November

VanEck places the coming months as a critical test of its cycle framework. Key indicators to monitor include:

• Net spot ETP inflows and ETF demand
• Trading volume and realized volatility trends
• Stabilization or recovery in long-term holder balances
• Exchange inflows by coin age (to detect distribution vs. security transfers)

A sustained pickup in spot demand, healthier trading volume and steady long-term holder balances would support the accumulation thesis. If selling from aged cohorts persists or fund flows reverse, the argument for a durable bottom would weaken.

Conclusion: accumulation possible, but not guaranteed

VanEck’s research frames the market as exhibiting late-cycle capitulation signals that historically correspond to periods of elevated risk and eventual recovery — but not necessarily an immediate rebound. With eight capitulation indicators active, U.S. spot ETP inflows partially absorbed selling, yet the movement of long-term holdings complicates the picture.

For traders and investors focused on Bitcoin and crypto assets, the next three months will be decisive. If institutional demand continues and on-chain metrics stabilize, accumulation between September and November is plausible. If distribution persists, the market may remain range-bound or extend its correction. Investors should weigh on-chain data, ETF flows, and volatility alongside macro and regulatory developments before drawing firm conclusions about a cycle bottom.