XRP Tests $1.06 as Open Interest Falls to 6-Month Low

XRP trades near $1.07 as open interest sinks

XRP slipped toward $1.06 on Aug. 5, 2026, as momentum faltered and derivatives positioning softened. Despite steady inflows into U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds, the token remained trapped in a narrow range, unable to stage a decisive rebound. Market participants are watching technical support around $1.05–$1.06 and monitoring derivatives metrics that point to a low-leverage, low-conviction environment.

Key market snapshot

• Price: near $1.07, down roughly 0.9% over 24 hours.
• 24-hour volume: about $911.7 million.
• Market capitalization: approximately $66.7 billion, keeping XRP the sixth-largest crypto by market cap.
• Derivatives open interest (CoinGlass): around $2.25 billion; futures volume near $1.35 billion.

These figures reflect a market where selling has trimmed exposure rather than forced a cascade of liquidations. That dynamic reduces the immediate risk of price blowouts but also underscores limited buyer conviction.

Technical outlook — can XRP hold $1.05?

XRP has been consolidating near the bottom of a multi-month decline from above $2.50 to roughly $1.0676. Short-term technicals show muted buying pressure and a fragile structure that could open the door to lower levels if support gives way.

Momentum indicators

• Relative Strength Index (daily): 43.71, below the neutral 50 and slightly under its 44.87 moving average. This reading shows restrained buying momentum without a deep daily oversold signal.
• MACD: mildly bearish. The MACD line sits near -0.0110, below the signal line at roughly -0.0101, while the histogram is slightly negative (~-0.0009). The narrow gap between lines indicates weak downside pressure rather than aggressive selling.

Key technical levels to watch:

• Support: $1.05–$1.06 (immediate); psychological $1.00 and late-June lows near $1.01 (if support breaks).
• Immediate bullish hurdles: $1.10 (first reclaim level) and $1.13–$1.15 (range resistance that has capped rallies since June).

Analyst perspectives are split. Some chart analysts mark $1.06 as a deciding pivot: a hold would keep bullish recovery scenarios open, while a failure could expose targets in the $0.80 to $0.62 range. Conversely, upside reconnection above $1.10–$1.15 would be needed to confirm a constructive regime shift.

XRP price chart

Derivatives, leverage and positioning — a quieter reset

Data from CoinGlass and CryptoQuant points to falling open interest and a decline in estimated leverage — a combination consistent with position trimming rather than fresh, aggressive shorting. That dynamic can limit violent liquidation-driven moves but also signals lacking conviction among buyers.

What the numbers show

• CoinGlass reported total derivatives open interest near $2.25 billion and futures volume of about $1.35 billion. Over 24 hours, volume down ~10.3% and open interest down ~5.6%.
• CryptoQuant’s open interest measures moved to six-month lows, with estimates around 362–369 million on certain exchange-specific metrics. The platform’s estimated leverage ratio dipped toward 0.139–0.142, near the period low.
• Funding rates stayed close to neutral (roughly between -0.009 and +0.010), and liquidations alternated between longs and shorts, suggesting no one-sided cascade.

Taken together, these readings support the interpretation that traders are de-risking positions and rebalancing exposure rather than being forced out en masse. That reduces short-term tail risk from margin liquidations but also means there’s less derivative-driven fuel for a sharp recovery.

Spot flows and ETF demand — inflows but no breakout

U.S. spot XRP ETFs have continued to attract capital, registering four consecutive days of inflows totaling around $15.4 million as reported by market trackers. By mid-2026, five U.S. spot XRP funds launched between November and December 2025 had accumulated roughly $1.5 billion in assets under management.

Despite these regulated inflows, the token’s price remained confined to the $1.00–$1.13 band. ETF purchases have created a steady, regulated source of demand, but they’ve not yet overridden broader selling pressure from other venues, token issuances, exchange activity and hedging flows in derivatives markets.

Spot flow snapshot

CoinGlass recorded a small net outflow of about $2.15 million on Aug. 5, underlining that daily flows continue to oscillate. Recent outflows have been far smaller than the large spikes observed in late 2025, which suggests selling pressure is softer, but sustained positive spot flow would be more persuasive evidence of improving demand.

XRP Spot Inflow/Outflow

On-chain and network metrics

On-chain indicators painted a mixed picture. One contributor noted a sharper compression in the network value to transactions ratio (NVT) compared with on-ledger activity: NVT fell roughly 42.7% relative to its three-month average, while transaction counts declined about 23.3%.

This divergence can signal that market valuation softened faster than actual ledger usage. While it doesn’t give a reliable timing signal for a price turnaround, it does suggest the market may be pricing in weaker demand or higher risk premia than on-chain activity alone implies.

Regulation, Ripple developments and market context

The legal backdrop around Ripple has evolved: the company and the SEC dismissed appeals in August 2025, leaving the district court’s final judgment in force, which includes a $125.04 million penalty and an injunction related to future registration practices. While the appeal dismissal removed ongoing court proceedings, the underlying findings about institutional sales remain part of the public record.

Legislative developments also matter. The CLARITY Act had reached the Senate calendar but still required floor support, reconciliation with other bills and presidential approval. Political debate and potential amendments mean that broader U.S. crypto policy remains fluid, and any congressional action could influence sentiment for XRP and other U.S.-listed tokens.

On the corporate front, Ripple announced strategic investments in ZILO and Licuido on Aug. 3. Those partnerships aim to enhance token issuance, transfer agency, trading and collateral services within Ripple’s institutional stack on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Ripple described RLUSD as a potential settlement asset for tokenized fund transactions. The initiatives align with Ripple’s push into tokenized capital markets, but they have not yet translated into disclosed revenue or material, traceable XRP demand.

Technical improvements were also deployed: in late July, the XRP Ledger experienced a flood of validator manifests. Developers responded with xrpld version 3.2.1 to limit processing and storage of untrusted manifests. The ledger continued to close normally and no confirmed loss of funds was reported; node operators were advised to update.

Trading implications and levels to watch

Traders should monitor several near-term signals that could tip the balance:

• Hold $1.05: If XRP can defend daily closes above $1.05–$1.06, it would reduce the immediate probability of testing $1.00 and late-June lows.
• Reclaim $1.10 and $1.15: A sustained recovery above $1.10 would indicate buyer interest is returning; clearing $1.13–$1.15 with solid volume would weaken the bearish structure and open the path to higher targets.
• Open interest stabilization: Open interest should stop declining (or trend higher) without the price making new lows. Renewed OI growth alongside rising price and volume would be a constructive sign.
• Spot flow confirmation: Continued ETF inflows that coincide with positive net spot flows from broader markets would provide more convincing evidence that demand is outweighing supply.

Risk management remains critical. Lower leverage reduces short-term volatility potential from forced liquidations, but it also means moves may be gradual and range-bound until a clear directional catalyst appears. Traders should size positions with consideration for limited momentum and plan entries around confirmed technical breaks or sustained spot flow improvements.

Conclusion — range-bound with low conviction

XRP’s current setup looks like a classic low-conviction range: weaker momentum, reduced leverage and mixed fund flows. Derivatives metrics point to a positioning reset rather than a capitulation, and ETF inflows have not yet been large enough to flip the broader trend.

The next meaningful price signal will come from the market: defending $1.05 and reclaiming $1.10–$1.15 with volume and stabilized open interest would favor a recovery thesis. Conversely, a daily close below $1.05 would put $1.00 back in play and increase downside risk. Until one of those scenarios unfolds, XRP is likely to trade in a tight, low-conviction band.

For traders and investors, the focus should remain on technical confirmation, derivatives positioning (open interest and funding), spot flow dynamics, and any material on-chain or regulatory developments that could shift institutional or retail demand.