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Samsung is reaping a short-term windfall from a global DRAM shortage, boosting memory revenues and near-term profits — but that doesn't automatically translate to foundry dominance. Industry analysts say the Korean giant still faces structural gaps when it comes to competing with TSMC on advanced node manufacturing.
Market tailwinds versus foundry realities
Reports based on United Daily News and WSTS projections put memory revenue growth near 27.8% in 2025, and industry estimates peg Samsung's operating profit as high as $73 billion in 2026. Those figures underline how a tight DRAM market can fatten margins across the board. Yet several semiconductor experts, including DigiTimes deputy director Tsai Cho-shao, emphasize that these gains are largely market-driven — a result of supply-demand dynamics — rather than a sign of improved competitiveness in Samsung's wafer foundry business.
Said simply: higher DRAM prices can lift Samsung's headline profits without closing the technological and operational gap between Samsung Foundry and TSMC.
Where Samsung still needs to catch up
Analysts point to three clear areas where Samsung trails rivals and must decide where to invest:
- HBM production — SK hynix currently holds the edge in high-bandwidth memory capacity and scale.
- Wafer foundry operations — TSMC remains the leader in advanced process maturity and customer trust.
- Mobile product competitiveness — Samsung's handset and SoC momentum is uneven compared with peers.
Samsung has the capital and engineering talent to address these gaps, but choosing the right priorities and executing at speed will determine whether the company can convert short-term memory profits into long-term foundry strength.
2nm GAA progress, deals and growing pains
The company has shown progress: Samsung announced the Exynos 2600 built on a 2nm gate-all-around (GAA) process and began mass production. Early yield reports put production yields near 50%, with internal targets around 70% as manufacturing stabilizes. That kind of ramp is promising, but foundry customers often demand consistent, high-volume yields before shifting large orders away from incumbents.
Commercial wins have followed: Samsung signed a multi-billion-dollar supply deal with Tesla and started fulfilling orders for at least two Chinese cryptocurrency-equipment makers. Those contracts validate capacity, but they don't yet alter the broader perception that Samsung must close several technical and operational gaps to become a TSMC-level foundry partner.
Complicating matters, the DRAM squeeze has also prompted internal probes at Samsung amid allegations that some employees took bribes to divert memory supplies. Such controversies can distract management and damage client confidence just when Samsung needs to show steady execution.
In short, the DRAM shortage is buying Samsung breathing room and stronger near-term profits. Turning that momentum into sustained foundry leadership will take focused investment, flawless manufacturing yields, and time — likely several years — before Samsung stands in the same conversation as TSMC at the most advanced nodes.
Source: wccftech
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