Picture a dashboard full of pulsing odds and live markets, the kind of interface that turns curiosity into action. That was the scene regulators said they could no longer tolerate. French authorities have quietly instructed internet providers to block Polymarket, the prediction market that lets people bet on everything from elections to the weather.
The Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) has reclassified Polymarket not as a financial trading venue but as an illegal gambling site operating in France. The regulator argues that past restrictions failed to stop French users from reaching the platform. According to Similarweb data cited by ANJ, Polymarket logged 578,751 visits from 205,057 unique French users in June, even though financial transactions were barred from November 2024. Users simply routed around that ban with VPNs.
Why the shutdown went beyond a simple ban
ANJ’s case rests on two points: the platform’s addictive mechanics and the fact that its public-facing pages act like ads. The Polymarket homepage still shows live markets and real-time odds. ANJ says that dynamic display does more than inform; it promotes engagement. "The homepage, which dynamically shows real-time odds for event markets, functions as a primary channel to distribute and promote Polymarket's services," the regulator wrote, adding that such activity is illegal in France.

There are also darker threads. Météo-France filed a complaint after a temperature sensor appeared to have been manipulated in connection with weather-based bets. That prompted the Paris cybercrime unit to open an investigation. And ANJ flagged activity by a high-profile French trader known as Fredi9999, who shifted several million euros in 2024 and, according to the regulator, influenced odds on the US presidential race.
Think of it this way: the line between market signal and market distortion blurred. When data sources can be tampered with and a single actor can move sizable sums, the claim that Polymarket is a neutral marketplace frays.
Not an isolated response
France’s move is part of a broader international trend. Polymarket faces restrictions in more than 30 jurisdictions. Switzerland blocked the site in November 2024. Poland, Singapore, and Belgium followed in early 2025. Portugal acted in January 2026, and Spain issued a temporary block in May while investigations continue. Other countries that have taken action include Brazil, Argentina, India, Indonesia, Italy, Germany, Romania, Hungary, and Ukraine.
The pattern is clear: regulators around the world are moving from watching prediction markets with curiosity to policing them like gambling platforms. Reasons vary by country, but common themes appear: weak consumer protections, no betting caps, and limited self-exclusion tools for vulnerable users.
Polymarket's defenders argue the site is a novel tool for forecasting and public debate. Its critics see an unregulated space where money meets real-world outcomes and where incentives to manipulate data or markets are too strong to ignore.
Either way, regulators aren’t waiting. Blocking access is the blunt instrument of choice for now, and for users and innovators alike, that raises uncomfortable questions about where prediction markets fit in a tightly regulated digital economy.




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Comments (2)
I've seen traders move thin markets at my firm, it happens. blanket blocks are lazy tho, set caps, transparency, better checks not just bans. messy situation
so they're blocking a forecasting site bc the homepage shows live odds? feels like overreach. if data can be tampered, sure, but who decides what counts as 'gambling' here?